An Invisible Thread is set in the 4th millennium, specifically during the year 3335. In order to set a story in a future that distant, some predictions about geopolitics in that distant future are in order . . .
Economics
One of the main assertions regarding economics in the novel is that the greatest forward progress in an economy is made when capitalism, free markets, and entrepreneurial enterprise is allowed to flourish. Longer periods of minimal governmental control upon free enterprise result in the best economic results over the long run.
Just as countries like the Soviet Union or The People's Republic of China during the late 20th century found that they had to experiment with opening up their markets to free enterprise after strict communist or socialist controls led to severe economic downturns, the future will hold more of the same for supposedly socialist or communist nation-states. Nations will leave but then return to capitalism as the balm that soothes and heals the economic downturns that result from their abandonment of free markets and attempted increased regulatory and other controls. The other side of this coin is that supposed bastions of capitalism and free markets will eventually dabble or even dive feet-first into increased regulation and control, even to point of codifying socialist or Marxist ideals for a time. Evidence for this type of cycling may be easily seen in the United States, even over its short history. Comparing its current governmental administration in 2016 (and even the several leading up to it) as opposed to the approaches taken in the 1980's or the 1920's will reveal extreme swings in reliance upon truly free markets, the amount of government assistance offered to the masses, the amount and kinds of control exerted upon companies, production techniques, and even what products are legal for sale and/or consumption. The damage will be done, and the eventual return to freer markets will aid in the recovery of lost economic strength.
Prediction:
Over time, the nations that spend the most time relying on the most-free markets will yield the strongest economic results. At least, this is the paradigm that plays out in the book.
One of the main assertions regarding economics in the novel is that the greatest forward progress in an economy is made when capitalism, free markets, and entrepreneurial enterprise is allowed to flourish. Longer periods of minimal governmental control upon free enterprise result in the best economic results over the long run.
Just as countries like the Soviet Union or The People's Republic of China during the late 20th century found that they had to experiment with opening up their markets to free enterprise after strict communist or socialist controls led to severe economic downturns, the future will hold more of the same for supposedly socialist or communist nation-states. Nations will leave but then return to capitalism as the balm that soothes and heals the economic downturns that result from their abandonment of free markets and attempted increased regulatory and other controls. The other side of this coin is that supposed bastions of capitalism and free markets will eventually dabble or even dive feet-first into increased regulation and control, even to point of codifying socialist or Marxist ideals for a time. Evidence for this type of cycling may be easily seen in the United States, even over its short history. Comparing its current governmental administration in 2016 (and even the several leading up to it) as opposed to the approaches taken in the 1980's or the 1920's will reveal extreme swings in reliance upon truly free markets, the amount of government assistance offered to the masses, the amount and kinds of control exerted upon companies, production techniques, and even what products are legal for sale and/or consumption. The damage will be done, and the eventual return to freer markets will aid in the recovery of lost economic strength.
Prediction:
Over time, the nations that spend the most time relying on the most-free markets will yield the strongest economic results. At least, this is the paradigm that plays out in the book.
Politics
The main political entity described in the novel is the so-called United Democratic Capitalist Republics, or UDCR. This is a multinational entity comprised of what amounts to the "superpowers" of future Earth. In 3335, entities reminiscent of the European Economic Union (if it had won its political power votes across Europe) are the norm. There is a North American Union-style entity crouched all across the Western Hemisphere, a result of the expansion and mutation of the United States. New Russia has reasserted its influence and acquired a complete grasp of the Middle East. It acts as a counterpoint to the expanded United States. The Far East and India have been subsumed by a rejuvenated Neo Japanese Empire, which has become a formidable economic machine. There is mention of a European United States, which exists in alliance with the United States in a kind of economic and political union of former NATO states, but the power and influence of the European nations appears to be diminished in comparison with the three superpowers mentioned.
Again, the book does predict that the more things progress, the less things will ever change. The cycling of the same philosophies of government and economic control back-and-forth across time continue. The appearance of polarized parties vying for control is more often than not just an illusion. What is occurring instead is actually a brokered, power-sharing scheme perpetrated upon an all too apathetic electorate by parties who appear juxtaposed in opposition to each other in sound-bites and rhetoric, but who are actually operationally and philosophically allied. Actual swings in real control schemes and philosophical bent only punctuate this default political landscape.
For example, the United States of 2016 may appear far removed from the United States of 1916 that it is almost unrecognizable to some, however the philosophy of the administrations in power in 1916 and 2016 are quite compatible. The budget is a lot bigger in 2016, and the government's footprint is certainly exponentially larger. However, Woodrow Wilson's ways and means were quite similar to the administration's in 2016. A similar cycling can be seen in how the ways FDR's administration dealt with the Great Depression were re-instituted and even doubled-down upon by the Obama administration in its attempt to deal with the so-called Great Recession. While these would not be the way a Coolidge or Reagan administration would have handled such things, it nevertheless has been followed through again by this present administration. Sooner or later, a new "Reagan" follows this "Carter" in American politics, and the cycling will continue. (Enter President Trump in 2017!) Even if there is a pinch-point where the competition between truly polarized factions comes to a head, as happened in the United States during its Civil War (or will happen during the so-called Second American Revolution of 2193), the default situation and power-sharing will reassert itself in time. Similar cycles are predicted to continue well into the future; indeed they are seen across space even in the governing bodies of alien cultures.
Within the UDCR as a whole, and inside the United States in particular, during 3335, the swing is away from relaxed, freer markets and a smaller government footprint, the name of the overarching governmental entity notwithstanding. This reach for the expansion of governmental power and resources is a key driver in the story, as the intended and unintended results of these efforts affect individual character arcs, most obviously Erin's, but also most of the Surface Forces and how they are deployed.
Another prediction is about the level of apathy towards government. Today, even if the parties are not polarized in true opposition to each other, there are elements of society that are. In 3335, the size of that part of the population that actually is energized in support behind one pole or another of the political landscape is even smaller; frivolous pastimes and technological distractions have increased the level of apathy toward whatever it is that government is up to. However, this too likely follows a cycle, though rarely does interest in politics reach a saturation point across society at large. Recall that, even during the time of the (First) American Revolution, about a third of the colonists were polarized in support of the revolution, about third were opposed (supported the King), and a solid third is estimated to have not cared which way it went! In 3335, that last solid (apathetic) third is presumed to be a lot bigger. By the time period the novel is set within, large sections of the world are under single governments, and these larger geopolitical entities are tied together under the UDCR.
Predictions:
The pendulum will swing freely across time; nations will impose more controls politically and economically, and then less. Socialist and Marxist-style regimes will take power over even seemingly unlikely nations for periods of time. These times will be followed by periods of economic healing, where capitalism and free markets make their return.
Most citizens will be ambivalent about the machinations of any government over them, whether they are benevolent and increase personal liberty and prosperity or restrict such things in favor of government cues and bailouts. Only when extreme damage is done to personal comfort will a populace rise up against a particular government or system of government.
Note: Since most people exist in a state of unilevelness, this should come as no surprise (see the page on Psychological Insights)
The main political entity described in the novel is the so-called United Democratic Capitalist Republics, or UDCR. This is a multinational entity comprised of what amounts to the "superpowers" of future Earth. In 3335, entities reminiscent of the European Economic Union (if it had won its political power votes across Europe) are the norm. There is a North American Union-style entity crouched all across the Western Hemisphere, a result of the expansion and mutation of the United States. New Russia has reasserted its influence and acquired a complete grasp of the Middle East. It acts as a counterpoint to the expanded United States. The Far East and India have been subsumed by a rejuvenated Neo Japanese Empire, which has become a formidable economic machine. There is mention of a European United States, which exists in alliance with the United States in a kind of economic and political union of former NATO states, but the power and influence of the European nations appears to be diminished in comparison with the three superpowers mentioned.
Again, the book does predict that the more things progress, the less things will ever change. The cycling of the same philosophies of government and economic control back-and-forth across time continue. The appearance of polarized parties vying for control is more often than not just an illusion. What is occurring instead is actually a brokered, power-sharing scheme perpetrated upon an all too apathetic electorate by parties who appear juxtaposed in opposition to each other in sound-bites and rhetoric, but who are actually operationally and philosophically allied. Actual swings in real control schemes and philosophical bent only punctuate this default political landscape.
For example, the United States of 2016 may appear far removed from the United States of 1916 that it is almost unrecognizable to some, however the philosophy of the administrations in power in 1916 and 2016 are quite compatible. The budget is a lot bigger in 2016, and the government's footprint is certainly exponentially larger. However, Woodrow Wilson's ways and means were quite similar to the administration's in 2016. A similar cycling can be seen in how the ways FDR's administration dealt with the Great Depression were re-instituted and even doubled-down upon by the Obama administration in its attempt to deal with the so-called Great Recession. While these would not be the way a Coolidge or Reagan administration would have handled such things, it nevertheless has been followed through again by this present administration. Sooner or later, a new "Reagan" follows this "Carter" in American politics, and the cycling will continue. (Enter President Trump in 2017!) Even if there is a pinch-point where the competition between truly polarized factions comes to a head, as happened in the United States during its Civil War (or will happen during the so-called Second American Revolution of 2193), the default situation and power-sharing will reassert itself in time. Similar cycles are predicted to continue well into the future; indeed they are seen across space even in the governing bodies of alien cultures.
Within the UDCR as a whole, and inside the United States in particular, during 3335, the swing is away from relaxed, freer markets and a smaller government footprint, the name of the overarching governmental entity notwithstanding. This reach for the expansion of governmental power and resources is a key driver in the story, as the intended and unintended results of these efforts affect individual character arcs, most obviously Erin's, but also most of the Surface Forces and how they are deployed.
Another prediction is about the level of apathy towards government. Today, even if the parties are not polarized in true opposition to each other, there are elements of society that are. In 3335, the size of that part of the population that actually is energized in support behind one pole or another of the political landscape is even smaller; frivolous pastimes and technological distractions have increased the level of apathy toward whatever it is that government is up to. However, this too likely follows a cycle, though rarely does interest in politics reach a saturation point across society at large. Recall that, even during the time of the (First) American Revolution, about a third of the colonists were polarized in support of the revolution, about third were opposed (supported the King), and a solid third is estimated to have not cared which way it went! In 3335, that last solid (apathetic) third is presumed to be a lot bigger. By the time period the novel is set within, large sections of the world are under single governments, and these larger geopolitical entities are tied together under the UDCR.
Predictions:
The pendulum will swing freely across time; nations will impose more controls politically and economically, and then less. Socialist and Marxist-style regimes will take power over even seemingly unlikely nations for periods of time. These times will be followed by periods of economic healing, where capitalism and free markets make their return.
Most citizens will be ambivalent about the machinations of any government over them, whether they are benevolent and increase personal liberty and prosperity or restrict such things in favor of government cues and bailouts. Only when extreme damage is done to personal comfort will a populace rise up against a particular government or system of government.
Note: Since most people exist in a state of unilevelness, this should come as no surprise (see the page on Psychological Insights)
War
In the distant future, previously disparate Earth nations, who may have had competing goals and conflicting needs, must work together in order to effectively exploit deep space resources and compete at a galactic level (at least compete in the Local, or Orion Arm). The pooled resources of Earth are pitted against the pooled resources of other planets and even interplanetary alliances.
Eventually, Earth will come to the conclusion that it needs to pool its resources with those of an entirely xenopolitical entity, that of one of the major governments of the yuvynn species. While not all yuvynn are governed by the same political power, the majority are under the aegis of the Kyth 'thri Sodality, which is the government with whom the UDCR forges a major political, economic, and military alliance.
Predictions:
War machines and specific military campaigns will be focused away from Earth and in service of expansion efforts on behalf of humanity in general.
Eventually, political, economic and even military alliances of an interplanetary nature will be necessary for Earth to secure its place as a competitive and important player on the galactic xenopolitical and military landscape.
In the distant future, previously disparate Earth nations, who may have had competing goals and conflicting needs, must work together in order to effectively exploit deep space resources and compete at a galactic level (at least compete in the Local, or Orion Arm). The pooled resources of Earth are pitted against the pooled resources of other planets and even interplanetary alliances.
Eventually, Earth will come to the conclusion that it needs to pool its resources with those of an entirely xenopolitical entity, that of one of the major governments of the yuvynn species. While not all yuvynn are governed by the same political power, the majority are under the aegis of the Kyth 'thri Sodality, which is the government with whom the UDCR forges a major political, economic, and military alliance.
Predictions:
War machines and specific military campaigns will be focused away from Earth and in service of expansion efforts on behalf of humanity in general.
Eventually, political, economic and even military alliances of an interplanetary nature will be necessary for Earth to secure its place as a competitive and important player on the galactic xenopolitical and military landscape.
Predictions in the Novel About Specific Nations and Regions of Earth:
The United States
The Western Hemisphere
Europe
Russia
Japan
The United States
- Will still be in existence
- Is much larger, having annexed much of its hemisphere during a running effort to exploit the resources of neighbor nations, trying to stave off a looming economic slump
- Eventually experiences a so-called Second American Revolution, where the original Constitution is re-established in place of the ravaged, amended and abridged "modern" version
- This just resets the cycle that led to that point
- Becomes a founding member of the UDCR
The Western Hemisphere
- Will be mostly annexed under the United States
- Has a better standard of living under the aegis of the United States due to its more representative government and more often capitalistic economic system
Europe
- Will be united under a European Union-style government called the United States of Europe
- Will have diminished power and influence in the late 3rd and 4th millennia when compared to the 3 superpowers of the time, the result of too much time spent experimenting with socialist and Marxist policies which damage economic growth
Russia
- Will emerge eventually as a geopolitical entity calling itself the New Russian Republic
- Will follow through with many of the ambitions of the old Soviet Union and 21st century Russia, absorbing most of the Middle East in its need for port cities and expanded natural resources
- Presumably, the United States' refocused efforts on its own hemisphere opens the window for this to occur unchecked
- Becomes a founding member of the UDCR
Japan
- Will eventually recover from it current state of "lost" decades and become an economic juggernaut again
- Eventually annexes other nation-states of the Far East, including China
- Extends its power as far west as to encompass India and as far south as to have absorbed Indonesia
- Becomes a founding member of the UDCR
Resources
An Invisible Thread is not strictly based on any of the following books, but I think if you find the above speculation interesting, you will like these books if you have not already discovered them.
An Invisible Thread is not strictly based on any of the following books, but I think if you find the above speculation interesting, you will like these books if you have not already discovered them.
- One of the books that strikes me as having some plausibility on the topic of future geopolitics would be The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century by George Friedman. I recommend it as a great starter on the topic of geopolitics.
- Another interesting book that just came out recently is Merger of the Century: Why Canada and America Should Become One Country by Diane Frances. The author posits that Canada's vast resources are left untapped and quite vulnerable by the country's inability to exploit them or even to safeguard them for their own future. Sooner or later, other countries with the need for such resources will come for them. She offers up an amicable merger between these two important trade partners. (The novel posits that a less friendly annexation is more likely . . .)